High-Return ETH SWING_STRUCTURE Short + Regime (4h)
Published July 26, 2026
SWING_STRUCTURE Short + Regime strategy on ETH. +33.68% return over the test period with 48.1% win rate and 1.35 profit factor. Sharpe ratio: 0.71. Max drawdown: 20.88%. Best performance in distribute regime.
Performance Metrics
Out-of-Sample Validation
Tested on unseen data to verify the strategy is not curve-fitted. Low degradation confirms robustness.
Statistical Confidence
How likely the edge is real — out-of-sample statistical confidence, consistency across time, and a comparison to simply holding the asset.
Return range (90% confidence): -19.19% ··· 30.24% ··· 137.47%
Backtest includes trading fees and slippage, assumes full-capital sequential compounding, and does not model futures funding costs on shorts.
Equity Curve
Strategy Rules
CFO Regime Breakdown
Anny's CFO Line divides market conditions into three regimes. Accumulate means the trend is bullish — ideal for long entries. Distribute means bearish — better to avoid or short. Wait means the trend is unclear. This breakdown shows how the strategy performed in each regime, helping you understand when it works best.
This strategy performs best during Distribute — consider using the regime filter to only enter trades when the CFO Line signals Distribute.
| Regime | Return | Trades | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wait | -5.51% | 30 | 40% |
| Accumulate | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Distribute | 31.39% | 20 | 55% |
| _best_combo | 31.39% | 20 | 55% |
Trade History (50 trades)
| Entry | Exit | Return | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/12/2024 | 8/12/2024 | -4.02% | Wait |
| 8/15/2024 | 8/18/2024 | -3.99% | Wait |
| 8/19/2024 | 8/20/2024 | -2.76% | Wait |
| 8/26/2024 | 8/27/2024 | +3.21% | Wait |
| 9/1/2024 | 9/2/2024 | -3.12% | Wait |
| 9/4/2024 | 9/4/2024 | -3.43% | Wait |
| 9/6/2024 | 9/6/2024 | +5.64% | Wait |
| 9/15/2024 | 9/15/2024 | +2.78% | Wait |
| 10/9/2024 | 10/11/2024 | -2.68% | Wait |
| 11/4/2024 | 11/4/2024 | +3.46% | Wait |
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Past performance does not guarantee future results. All strategies involve risk of loss.
