High-Return AVAX BB_PERCENT_B Short + Regime (4h)
Published August 2, 2026
BB_PERCENT_B Short + Regime strategy on AVAX. +42.81% return over the test period with 45.5% win rate and 1.4 profit factor. Sharpe ratio: 0.72. Max drawdown: 26.84%. Best performance in wait regime.
Performance Metrics
Out-of-Sample Validation
Tested on unseen data to verify the strategy is not curve-fitted. Low degradation confirms robustness.
Statistical Confidence
How likely the edge is real — out-of-sample statistical confidence, consistency across time, and a comparison to simply holding the asset.
Return range (90% confidence): -24.97% ··· 42.62% ··· 188.73%
Backtest includes trading fees and slippage, assumes full-capital sequential compounding, and does not model futures funding costs on shorts.
Equity Curve
Strategy Rules
CFO Regime Breakdown
Anny's CFO Line divides market conditions into three regimes. Accumulate means the trend is bullish — ideal for long entries. Distribute means bearish — better to avoid or short. Wait means the trend is unclear. This breakdown shows how the strategy performed in each regime, helping you understand when it works best.
This strategy performs best during accumulate+wait — consider using the regime filter to only enter trades when the CFO Line signals accumulate+wait.
| Regime | Return | Trades | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wait | 40.91% | 42 | 45.2% |
| Accumulate | 3.99% | 2 | 50% |
| Distribute | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| _best_combo | 44.9% | 44 | 45.5% |
Trade History (44 trades)
| Entry | Exit | Return | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/16/2024 | 7/21/2024 | -5.15% | Wait |
| 8/8/2024 | 8/15/2024 | +13.14% | Wait |
| 8/18/2024 | 8/20/2024 | -3.87% | Wait |
| 8/20/2024 | 8/21/2024 | -4.32% | Wait |
| 8/22/2024 | 8/23/2024 | -4.96% | Wait |
| 9/8/2024 | 9/8/2024 | -4.49% | Wait |
| 1/31/2025 | 2/1/2025 | +8.29% | Wait |
| 2/11/2025 | 2/18/2025 | +9.6% | Wait |
| 2/21/2025 | 2/24/2025 | +7.95% | Wait |
| 3/2/2025 | 3/3/2025 | +11.59% | Wait |
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Past performance does not guarantee future results. All strategies involve risk of loss.
