ADA4hhigh riskBest: wait+distribute

High-Return ADA MACD Momentum (Short) (4h)

Published June 21, 2026

MACD Momentum (Short) strategy on ADA. +50.08% return over the test period with 40.5% win rate and 1.35 profit factor. Sharpe ratio: 1.22. Max drawdown: 25.74%. Best performance in wait regime.

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Performance Metrics

Total Return
+70.38%
Sharpe Ratio
1.22
Win Rate
40.50%
Max Drawdown
25.74%
Trade Count
74
Profit Factor
1.35
Avg Return/Trade
0.65%
Avg Hold (bars)
9

Out-of-Sample Validation

Tested on unseen data to verify the strategy is not curve-fitted. Low degradation confirms robustness.

OOS Return
11.60%
OOS Win Rate
45.50%
OOS Sharpe
1.73
Degradation
-55.86%

Equity Curve

Equity curve-3%+20%+43%+65%+88%

Strategy Rules

Entry TriggerMACD histogram crosses_below 0
Stop Losspercent 3%
Take Profitpercent 6%

CFO Regime Breakdown

Wait 25%
Distribute 23%

RegimeReturnTradesWin Rate
Wait64.56%2462.5%
Accumulate-3.16%425%
Distribute5.82%2236.4%
_best_combo70.38%4650%

Trade History (50 trades)

EntryExitReturnRegime
10/4/202510/5/2025-3.11%Wait
10/7/202510/10/2025+6.17%Wait
10/15/202510/17/2025+6.17%Distribute
10/22/202510/24/2025-3.11%Distribute
10/28/202510/30/2025+6.17%Wait
11/3/202511/3/2025+6.17%Distribute
11/11/202511/12/2025+6.17%Wait
11/16/202511/17/2025-3.11%Distribute
11/17/202511/18/2025-3.11%Distribute
11/19/202511/19/2025-3.11%Distribute

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Past performance does not guarantee future results. All strategies involve risk of loss.