AVAX Bollinger %B Long · Regime-Confirmed
Published October 26, 2026
Bollinger %B long entries on AVAX, long-side, entries only while the coin's REGIME confirmation is constructive (REGIME>0). ATR-based stop, 1.5R target, 24-bar time stop. Selection window: 35.2% over 33 trades, 46% win rate, max drawdown 19.9%. Independent hold-out window (2022-09-16 to 2024-10-05, never used in selection): 56.5% return, Sharpe 0.84, max drawdown 24.8%. Past performance, including backtested performance, does not predict future results. Longs overstate net expectancy by roughly funding (~11%/yr typical perpetual); REGIME>0 is a BTC-beta gate.
Performance Metrics
What these numbers mean
Return earned per unit of risk taken — not just return.
The deepest loss you would have had to sit through.
How it did on the last fifth of history, which the search was never allowed to see.
At least 30 closed trades, so nothing earns its place on a lucky handful.
Out-of-Sample Validation
Tested on unseen data to verify the strategy is not curve-fitted.
Backtest includes trading fees and slippage, assumes full-capital sequential compounding, and does not model futures funding costs on shorts.
Strategy Rules
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Past performance does not guarantee future results. All strategies involve risk of loss.
