Overshoot Fader · Bollinger %B · AVAX (4h)
Diterbitkan 6 Agustus 2026 · Pengujian ulang terakhir 25 September 2026
Overshoot Fader — A Bollinger %B position system · Short on AVAX (4h). Discovered by Anny's quant engine and validated out of sample with CFO regime analysis. Performance is re-backtested daily against live market data, so the figures shown here always reflect the current market. Best performance in accumulate+wait regime.
Metrik Kinerja
What these numbers mean
Return earned per unit of risk taken — not just return.
The deepest loss you would have had to sit through.
How it did on the last fifth of history, which the search was never allowed to see.
At least 30 closed trades, so nothing earns its place on a lucky handful.
Validasi Out-of-Sample
Diuji pada data yang belum pernah dilihat untuk memverifikasi strategi tidak over-fitted. Degradasi rendah mengonfirmasi ketahanan.
Keyakinan Statistik
Seberapa besar kemungkinan keunggulan ini nyata — keyakinan statistik di luar sampel, konsistensi sepanjang waktu, dan perbandingan dengan sekadar menahan aset.
Rentang imbal hasil (keyakinan 90%): -26.56% ··· 41.01% ··· 183.87%
Backtest mencakup biaya trading dan slippage, mengasumsikan penggabungan berurutan dengan modal penuh, dan tidak memodelkan biaya pendanaan futures pada posisi short.
Kurva Ekuitas
Aturan Strategi
Analisis Rezim CFO
CFO Line milik Anny membagi kondisi pasar menjadi tiga rezim. Akumulasi berarti tren bullish — ideal untuk entry long. Distribusi berarti bearish — lebih baik dihindari atau short. Tunggu berarti tren belum jelas. Rincian ini menunjukkan performa strategi di setiap rezim, membantu Anda memahami kapan ia bekerja paling baik.
| Rezim | Return | Trade | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tunggu | 7.1% | 32 | 40.6% |
| Akumulasi | 16.53% | 7 | 57.1% |
| Distribusi | 42.65% | 12 | 66.7% |
| _best_combo | 66.28% | 51 | 49% |
Riwayat Trade (51 trade)
| Masuk | Keluar | Return | Rezim |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/22/2026 | 8/22/2026 | +8.21% | Akumulasi |
| 8/21/2026 | 8/21/2026 | -4.25% | Akumulasi |
| 8/19/2026 | 8/19/2026 | -3.35% | Tunggu |
| 8/15/2026 | 8/15/2026 | +5.57% | Tunggu |
| 8/4/2026 | 8/6/2026 | +6.3% | Tunggu |
| 8/2/2026 | 8/4/2026 | -3.98% | Tunggu |
| 6/26/2026 | 7/4/2026 | -6.49% | Distribusi |
| 6/23/2026 | 6/25/2026 | +8.53% | Distribusi |
| 6/15/2026 | 6/18/2026 | +6.34% | Distribusi |
| 5/6/2026 | 5/8/2026 | -3.05% | Tunggu |
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Kinerja masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil di masa depan. Semua strategi memiliki risiko kerugian.
