DOT StochRSI Short · Regime-Sized
Diterbitkan 27 Agustus 2026 · Pengujian ulang terakhir 15 Oktober 2026
StochRSI exhaustion entries on DOT, short-side, with position size scaled by Bitcoin's weekly Anny Line regime (full size only when the market phase favors the trade). ATR-based stop, 2R target, 12-bar time stop. Selection window: 180.2% over 53 trades, 64% win rate, max drawdown 11.0%. Independent hold-out window (2022-04-09 to 2024-06-17, never used in selection): 108.0% return, Sharpe 1.09, max drawdown 27.9%. Past performance, including backtested performance, does not predict future results.
Metrik Kinerja
What these numbers mean
Return earned per unit of risk taken — not just return.
The deepest loss you would have had to sit through.
How it did on the last fifth of history, which the search was never allowed to see.
At least 30 closed trades, so nothing earns its place on a lucky handful.
Validasi Out-of-Sample
Diuji pada data yang belum pernah dilihat untuk memverifikasi strategi tidak over-fitted. Degradasi rendah mengonfirmasi ketahanan.
Backtest mencakup biaya trading dan slippage, mengasumsikan penggabungan berurutan dengan modal penuh, dan tidak memodelkan biaya pendanaan futures pada posisi short.
Kurva Ekuitas
Aturan Strategi
Analisis Rezim CFO
CFO Line milik Anny membagi kondisi pasar menjadi tiga rezim. Akumulasi berarti tren bullish — ideal untuk entry long. Distribusi berarti bearish — lebih baik dihindari atau short. Tunggu berarti tren belum jelas. Rincian ini menunjukkan performa strategi di setiap rezim, membantu Anda memahami kapan ia bekerja paling baik.
| Rezim | Return | Trade | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tunggu | 44.96% | 8 | 62.5% |
| Akumulasi | 10.91% | 7 | 57.1% |
| Distribusi | 161.74% | 38 | 60.5% |
| _best_combo | 217.61% | 53 | 60.4% |
Riwayat Trade (53 trade)
| Masuk | Keluar | Return | Rezim |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/21/2026 | 10/4/2026 | -0.18% | Akumulasi |
| 9/16/2026 | 9/21/2026 | -15.32% | Akumulasi |
| 8/27/2026 | 9/7/2026 | -11.99% | Distribusi |
| 8/17/2026 | 8/20/2026 | -8.4% | Distribusi |
| 7/21/2026 | 8/3/2026 | +2.69% | Distribusi |
| 7/6/2026 | 7/19/2026 | +7.95% | Distribusi |
| 6/20/2026 | 7/3/2026 | +9.88% | Distribusi |
| 6/7/2026 | 6/20/2026 | +0.21% | Distribusi |
| 5/23/2026 | 6/5/2026 | +38.89% | Distribusi |
| 5/8/2026 | 5/21/2026 | +6.16% | Distribusi |
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